Pick Winning Lotto Numbers
A question that many people ask is, is it possible to pick winning lotto numbers?
Now, of course, there are many people who will tell you that the answer is “yes”, and strangely enough, many of these people have a “system” to sell you.
Most of these systems, such as Beat The Lotto, are based on one of two premises – they either look for so-called “hot numbers”, which are numbers that have come up more often than expected recently, and which are therefore “on a roll”, or for numbers that have not come up for a long time, and which are therefore, in theory at least, “overdue”.
Both of these systems have obvious flaws in them.
Let’s start with the “overdue” systems.
The problem here is that lottery balls have no memory, just like when you toss a coin, you’re just as likely to get a head as a tail on every single spin, regardless of what happened previously. Even if the coin came down heads 100 times in a row, the chances of it landing heads-up on the next toss are still exactly 50% (assuming it doesn’t land on its edge, of course).
The same is true of lottery balls – they have no idea which balls came up on the last draw, or any previous draws, for that matter.
If there are 49 balls, say, in the lottery you’re playing, then every one of those 49 balls has an equal chance of being drawn.
Moving on to the “hot number” theory, then the issue is very similar.
You need to remember that even within genuinely random series of events, pseudo-patterns will appear, and by pseudo-patterns, we mean that humans will attribute significance to what look like patterns, because you see meaning in them, but that is certainly not the same as there being a truly inherent pattern.
Once again, we stress that each draw is independent of all previous draws, and the balls (or machines) have no knowledge of past events.
Here’s another example of a so-called system that is worthless, to all intents and purposes:
There is another issue here, which is similar to that faced by casinos – mechanical bias.
It has been proven that roulette wheels can have a minute bias, which can be enough to swing the odds in the gambler’s favour, provided, of course, that they have the means to detect this bias. (This was actually the subject of a very fascinating book, called “The Newtonian Casino“, by Thomas Bass, which describes a successful experiment by a few students who proved this theory can work.)
There are still gambling devices today, more sophisticated, to be sure, that attempt to predict where a roulette ball will fall based on a number of factors, that not only include the croupier’s signature, but also any bias in the wheel.
Of course, casinos are well aware of this possibility these days, which is why the wheels are regularly checked for accuracy to minute tolerances.
But we digress.
Even if the lottery machines did have some form of natural bias, the UK National Lottery, for example, addresses this by having several different machines and sets of balls, which are chosen at random just before each drawing.
This therefore minimises the chance of any bias appearing, because there are so many possible combinations of machines and balls.
So, where does this leave us?
Hopefully, you won’t be tempted to try your luck with these systems, as there is nothing scientifically or mathematically sound in the theories on which they are based.
If you want a system, then you’d be better of finding your own method of picking numbers in as random a manner as possible, and make sure you don’t commit the biggest lottery mistake of all!
If you really want to play the lottery and increase your chance of winning, the best way is to join a syndicate, especially a well-managed lottery syndicate, because it is ultimately all a numbers game – the more chances you have in each draw, the more likely it is you’ll win.
By joining an organised lottery to play in the Euro Millions draw, for example, you are more likely to win a prize, although you do, of course, have to share that prize with other syndicate members.
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